In episode 57 of the Growth Series podcast, Jeremy Duncombe, Managing Director at Accord Mortgages, is joined by Charles Roe, Director of Mortgages at UK Finance, and Rob Thomas, Principle Researcher at the Intermediaries Mortgage lending Association (IMLA). In this episode, Jeremy, Charles and Rob discuss their recent reports about the state of mortgages for 2021. This episode is part one of a two part series.
Jeremy starts the conversation by asking our guests to introduce themselves and their work. Despite having some crossover in who they represent, both organisations fulfil different roles and have made very different predictions.
The trio kick-off the exploration of those predictions by delving into the most recent IMLA report with Rob. According to that report, Rob and his team foresee a gross lending in the UK of £283bn and net lending of around £50bn, reaching its highest levels in more than a decade. Rob suggests that these figures are a result of the surprisingly upward trend in lending toward the latter half of 2020.
Charles is then asked to discuss the results of the UK Finance report. He caveats the figures in the report by reminding listeners that it was created in the last quarter of 2020, before many things like the success of the vaccine could be taken into account. Overall, though the predictions were somewhat more conservative than IMLA’s, the UK Finance report also forecasted a positive year.
Jeremy asks both Charles and Rob if they would change their predictions in light of what they know now in terms of economic changes and the recent budget announcement. Surprisingly, both guests admitted that they would take a more optimistic view of the possibilities for 2021 based on the new information. Though Charles suggests that his revised figures still would likely fall short of the initial predictions from IMLA.
Stay tuned for the second part of this discussion as we explore more about what these experts see coming in the future of UK mortgages.
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0.53 - 14.50 discuss:
An introduction to Charles and Rob
Rob’s forecast for the coming year
Unexpected levels of demand in 2020
The possibility of increased confidence from government support
Charles’ forecast for 2020
What they were unaware of at the time
How both would change their predictions with new information
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