Podcast #95 - Economists' Outlook for Mortgage Brokers Part 1

In episode 95 of this two part Growth Series podcast, Jeremy Duncombe,Managing Director at Accord Mortgages, speaks with Rob Thomas, Principal Researcher at IMLA, and Charles Roe, Director of Mortgages at UK Finance, about how the mortgage market performed in 2023.

Jeremy begins by asking why gross lending figures were lower than predicted last year, and Charles believes this is partly down to the rising cost of living and affordability issues. 

The conversation then turns to employment, as it remained strong last year, and how this affected the economy in 2023. Rob describes the labour market as a bright spot in the economy, as there is not the same level of fear of losing jobs as there has been in previous, more severe recessions. 

This, he says, helped to support the housing market in 2023, as people were able to find ways of earning an income to keep paying a mortgage.

Next, Jeremy asks whether inflation and the cost of living peaked in 2023, and Charles believes that is the case.

However, he says there is still uncertainty on the horizon, partly because elections are taking place in both the UK and the US this year, but also as a result of the conflict in the Middle East. Rob agrees that geopolitical uncertainties could lead to interest rates rising in the near future.

Listen to Part Two here.

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00:45 to 12:14

• Introduction to guests
• Gross mortgage lending in 2023
• Employment and the housing market
• Has inflation peaked?