UK Budget and the economic outlook: keep calm and carry on

Our latest Growth Series Live webinar welcomed back Max Shepherd, Group Economist at Yorkshire Building Society and Accord, to unpack a busy few months for the UK economy. A new Prime Minister, the Chancellor's first Budget, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising rate expectations have given brokers and their clients a lot to take in.

In this session, Max shares his latest view on:

• The UK Budget, why it was deliberately low key and what the bank surcharge could mean for mortgage pricing
  
• What's next from government, with the bigger fiscal decisions expected in 2027
  
• The US midterms, the Iran conflict and the knock-on effect on oil, gas and household energy bills
  
• Interest rate expectations, and why the market and economists currently see things differently
  
• Growth, the labour market and inflation, including the risk of second round effects
  
• The housing market outlook, mortgage demand and housing supply

Max also answers broker questions on what was missing from the Budget, why markets are pricing in more rate rises than most economists expect, whether the Bank of England is worried about recession, and whether support for first time buyers could encourage more new build homes.

Watch the full session below.

 

Tools to track rates and economic data
Trading Economics calendar
Chatham Financial

Key timings

• 2:51-9:40 UK budget
• 9:41-12:47 What next for the government?
• 12:48-27:56 US Midterm and war in Iran effects
• 27:57-29:54 Housing market summary
• 30:00-41:00 Q&A

Max also writes a quarterly economy blog for the Growth Series. To find his previous pieces, type "economy" into the search bar at the top of the hub. 

Look out for invites to our next Growth Series Live event, and if you have ideas for future sessions, share them with us here. 

Don’t forget, by attending our events on the day, you’ll have the opportunity to join in on exclusive Q&A sessions.

The information in this article is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial or professional advice.