In episode #141 of the Growth Series podcast, Jeremy Duncombe, Managing Director at Accord Mortgages, is joined by Charles Roe, Director of Mortgages at UK Finance, and Rob Thomas, Principal Researcher at IMLA, to share their forecasts and expectations for the 2026 mortgage market. Now in its fourth year, this much-anticipated economists’ edition turns its focus firmly to the year ahead, exploring where lending volumes may land, how affordability is shaping borrower behaviour, and what brokers should be preparing for in the months to come.
Jeremy opens the discussion with headline forecasts. UK Finance projects £300 billion of gross lending in 2026, while IMLA is slightly more optimistic at £320 billion. Charles explains why affordability remains tight for many borrowers, even as rates ease, and why that may keep house purchase activity steadier than some might hope. Rob counters with a more upbeat assessment, pointing to rising real incomes, easing rate expectations and the cumulative impact of regulatory tweaks that have yet to fully feed through.
A major theme is the scale of the remortgage opportunity. With 1.8 million fixed rate deals maturing in 2026, this year could define how brokers retain clients, deliver value and differentiate on advice rather than rate alone. The discussion considers how lenders are positioning themselves, where innovation is emerging, and why adviser relationships will matter more than ever.
There is also a candid debate around risk appetite and regulation. From high LTV lending and LTI flexibility to the role of rental payment data and protection products, the episode explores the balance between widening access and maintaining prudence. It is not a simple case of opening the taps; it is about where sensible expansion can take place and who benefits most.
Buy-to-let receives equal attention. Amid ongoing regulatory change and landlord concerns, Rob makes the case for steady growth driven by tenant demand and improving yields. The shape of the sector is changing, with professional operators increasingly dominant, and that shift carries implications for brokers serving landlord clients.
The episode closes with a look at the wider backdrop. Interest rate expectations, inflation trends and the resilience of the UK market in the face of global uncertainty all feed into the outlook.
Listen to more podcasts in the Economist Series here.
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